Date this Page Was Last Updated:
07/25/10 Your Personal Portfolio
is a personalized stock and mutual fund newsletter primarily designed for the
long term investor
The S&P 500 rose last week and is now down 1.1% for 2010. After rising over 40% from the 2009 low, the market appears to have hit a major resistance level in the 1200 -1250 range. After entering that range the S&P fell below it's 50 day moving average, rose briefly but once again dropped from the 1200-1250 level. It appears support is now at the 1000 level. If it fails to hold above that level it could drop as low at 900. The trend the last three months shows weakness, lower lows, lower highs. In spite of 2 quarters of GDP growth unemployment remains high, though the percentage of unemployed fell below 10%. The economy is now growing jobs in a reversal of downward trend that has lasted over a year. The price of oil is now above 80 as there is concern whether the growing demand for oil will hamper the recovery. For the week, the S&P 500 finished at 1102. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 3.02%. The recent changes in yield for treasuries indicates investors are unsure about the economy and are conflicted over whether to return to the safe haven of bonds or invest in the stock market.
The outlook for the economy in 2010 has continued growth. The Fed Chairman Bernanke suggests we were out of the recession at the end of 2009. The gains by the stock market in 2009 and the first 4 months of 2010 indicates that investors anticipated the end of the recession. There is no longer a serious question about liquidity within the US economy but now there are concerns about liquidity in the European economies. The Fed has kept its Fed funds rate at almost zero and because the government has provided significant amounts of bailout money to the banking community the liquidity crisis has eased for US banks but the Greek debt crisis indicates all problems have not been solved. Also, there continues to be a problem that goes back to the excessive lending practices of the mortgage industry and the excessive leverage the investment banks used to acquire depreciating mortgage assets. However, investor confidence in the US investment environment has been restored. This is reflected in the rise of Price to Earnings ratios. Those ratios are still high by historical standards. If investors do not retain confidence in the system then PE's could once again drop.
For an analysis of how the Financial Crisis occurred click on the above Analysis of Financial Crisis bar
As of 25 July 2010
PIRRSPICKS stocks down 1.9% S&P 500 down 1.1%
2009 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks up 25.4%, S&P 500 up 23.4%
2008 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks down 30.4%, S&P 500 down 38.4%
2007 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks up 4.5%, S&P 500 up 3.5%
2006 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks Up 9.9% S&P 500 up 13.3%
2005 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks Up 7.1% S&P 500 up 3%
2004 Results: PIRRSPICKS Stocks up 17.2% (the S&P500 was up 9%).
PIRRSNL Select funds up 1.1%.
Select Funds up 34% in 2009 (US Stock funds up 32%)
Select Funds down 40.9% in 2008 (US Stock funds down 40.1%)
Select Funds up 7.7% in 2007 (US Stock funds up 6.6%)
Select Funds up 14.9% in 2006(US Stock funds up 13%).
Select Funds up 7.9% in 2005 (US Stock funds up 7.3%).
Select Funds up 11.7% in 2004 (US Stock funds up 11%).
Our Mission
To provide effective but low cost investment advice to the small, long term investor.
To increase our subscriber's wealth while limiting their risk.
About the Personal Investors Research and Reporting Service News Letter (PIRRSNL)
In business since 1993, the PIRRSNL has guided subscribers/investors to gains that have consistently beat the market averages. PIRRSNL produces Your Personal Portfolio a newsletter that is specifically tailored to each subscriber's stock and/or fund holdings.
Stock recommendations are based on analysis of a company's past earnings history, current earnings growth prospects and long term growth prospects. While dividends do not have to paid it is an important factor when considering a stock. If a dividend is paid there should be a history of dividend growth. Closely related to strong earnings and dividend growth is the relationship between earnings growth and Price to Earnings (PE) ratios. A wide variety of sources (e.g. Value Line, Standard & Poors, internet investment research sources (such as AOL's Personal Finance section and Yahoo's Finance section) are used to obtain data on stocks.
PIRRSNL's fund analysis primarily considers how a fund performs versus the other funds in its Group/Category (i.e. Growth, Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Income, Balanced, etc.). Recommended funds are selected because they have performed as well as or better than the average fund in their Group/Category. PIRRSNL uses Morningstar and internet investment research sources to develop its fund data base.
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