Market Commentary

At this time (mid -2021) the stock market seems to be overpriced. That is, PE levels are at the high end of their historic range. This is probably due to excessive liquidity injected into the economic system from  efforts by Congress and the Federal Reserve to save the economy from the economic slowdown due to the pandemic. The cash has to be invested somewhere and the best investment in the past year was in the stock market, particularly when there was low inflation. However, inflation in the short term is rising. As economic activity is picking up, as the pandemic abates and the country attempts to get back to normalcy, there are shortages. It is getting difficult to get workers, laid off at the start of the pandemic, to come back to work. The supply chain is experiencing shortages and important commodity prices are rising. When this has occurred in the past the stock market has been vulnerable to a correction. Most economists are predicting a growing economy in the next year, with unemployment dropping and production improving, in spite of this a correction is very feasible.