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Political Commentary

Posted on by yourpersonalportfolios

Politics and Investing

BIDEN BETTER FOR ECONOMY THAN TRUMP. During the Biden administration the economy performed in solid, steady manner. There were worries that the inflation caused by pandemic and post-pandemic issues (production slowing due to less demand during the pandemic and production failing to meet the pent-up demand when the pandemic ended). The resultant inflation caused prognosticators to worry about inflation causing a recession. Inflation did occur but a recession never happened. The stock market weathered this pessimism and GDP stayed positive.

Even though the stock market rose when Trump was re-elected, the market probably would have done better in the long run if Trump had not been President. In particular, his decision to disrupt our global trade markets with irrational tariffs definitely is going to have bad economic side effects. The solid nature of the Biden economy impact so far has masked this bad decision making by the Trump administration.

Trump after leaving office as the worst President ever, but by out messaging the Democrats by repeatedly lying about the economy and the national and international situation Trump managed to get re-elected. Trump doesn’t understand our constitution, and he only cares about what is in it for himself. He is an elitist, privileged and arrogant. This perverse attitude is not good for the economy or financial markets as we attempt to survive another4 years of the incompetent Trump presidency. Investors should be cautious.

Market Commentary

Posted on by yourpersonalportfolios

At this time (early -2025) the stock market seems to be overpriced. That is, PE levels are at the high end of their historic range. This is probably due to excessive liquidity injected into the economic system from  efforts by Congress and the Federal Reserve to save the economy from the previous economic slowdown. The cash has to be invested somewhere and the best investment in the past year was in the stock market. However, inflation after a short term rise, is now refusing to go back to the Fed’s goal. As economic activity remains solid, Trump’s tariffs loom. When this has occurred in the past the stock market has been vulnerable to a correction. Most economists are predicting a growing economy in the next year, with unemployment remaining low and production improving, in spite of this a correction is very feasible, due to Trump’s erratic behavior (tariffs, handling of Gaza, efforts to end the War in the Ukraine, without Ukraine, Panama Canal, Greenland, dismantling of government without legal authority, etc).